rant · moment 7 of 18

Boots on the Ground Odds and Iran's Fate

from Lindsey Graham, Invading Iran & The Summer of Sh*t | The Tim Dillon Show #504 · #504

3 min

Tim discusses Polymarket odds on US ground troops in Iran, arguing the odds are too low since there's nowhere else to go, and that Iran can't be allowed to be a functional country.

In this bit7 moments
  • Polymarket odds put boots on the ground in Iran before 2027 at 26%, but Tim thinks it's much higher because there are only two options: nuke or invasion.
  • The administration might do a combination of both, and nobody knows what he'll actually do.
  • The U.S. is bombing Iran right now and inflicting civilian casualties to demonstrate capability, but it won't be enough without boots on the ground.
  • Tim insists the real probability of ground troops is higher than 26% because there's genuinely nowhere else to go strategically.
  • JD Vance will probably return to Rogan to discuss boots on the ground in Iran with his typical detached intellectual commentary.
  • Vance adopts a commentator persona, speaking about serious geopolitical events like the Epstein stuff with dispassionate curiosity.
  • Tim sets up a clip of JD Vance discussing Epstein on Joe Rogan.
Mentioned here

Friend of the showIranIsraelJD VanceJoe RoganVermontNewport Beach

All 18 moments in this episode →